Determinan Pertumbuhan Ekonomi Kabupaten Padangsidimpuan dan Kabupaten Tapanuli Selatan
Keywords:
Labor, Poverty, Unemployment, Human Development Index, Economic GrowthAbstract
This research is motivated by the percentage of economic growth, employment, poor population, unemployment and human development index. This study aims to determine the effect of labor, poverty, unemployment and human development index on economic growth. In Padangsidimpuan Regency and South Tapanuli Regency, economic growth, employment, poverty, unemployment, and the human development index fluctuate every year. In 2011 in Padangsidimpuan Regency economic growth has decreased, while poverty has also decreased. In 2013 in South Tapanuli Regency economic growth has increased, poverty has also increased while the workforce and human development index have decreased. Meanwhile, according to the classical theory in the introductory macroeconomic theory book, if the workforce increases, economic growth will also increase. According to the theory of the circle of poverty by Nurkse, he argues that poverty causes low state income so that economic growth is also low. Whereas in Okun's Law it describes the relationship between unemployment and economic growth is inversely proportional, the higher the level of economic growth, the unemployment rate will decrease.This research was conducted in Padangsidimpuan District and South Tapanuli District. This type of research is quantitative research, which is conducted using panel data in an annual form consisting of 42 samples. Types and sources of data used are secondary data sourced from the Central Bureau of Statistics (BPS). The data analysis method used is the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) and data processing is assisted by eviews 10 . The results of the Granger causality test show that there is a reciprocal relationship between variables, namely the poverty variable has an effect on the workforce variable and vice versa. This can be proven by the probability value <0.05, which means there is an influence. The results of the VECM test in the long run show that labor has a significant effect on economic growth. This can be proven by the value of tcount>ttable. The results of the VECM test in the long run show that poverty has a significant effect on economic growth. This can be proven by the value of tcount>ttable. The results of the VECM test in the long run show that unemployment has a significant effect on economic growth
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